pointless election analysis, part 1
since the nice votemaster at electoral-vote.com makes the data available in raw form, i thought i’d take a peek at a question i haven’t seen discussed so far.
as we are [should be!] aware, the broad vote count doesn’t really matter in the united states. what matters is the electoral college scoreboard. so i thought i’d take yesterday’s data (july 26) and compare it to the 2000 election, and see who was making progress in each state. progress, in this case, is defined as polling better as of yesterday than the actual democratic/republican split in a given state in 2000.
democrats advance in:
alaska (+5.23%)
colorado (+0.61%)
delaware (+0.02%)
district of columbia (+3.28%)
hawaii (+0.21%)
nevada (+2.77%)
new hampshire (+0.09%)
new mexico (+1.09%)
north carolina (+0.85%)
oregon (+2.94%)
south carolina (+3.1%)
tennessee (+0.71%)
vermont (+0.28%)
virginia (+0.52%)
washington (+2.84%)
wisconsin (+0.17%)
republicans advance in:
delaware (+0.08%)
florida (+1.15%)
maine (+1.03%)
mississippi (+3.38%)
new jersey (+0.71%)
north dakota (+0.34%)
i’m ignoring third parties, and of course, most of these are well within the margin of error for the poll, but i thought i’d be interesting to put the last state polls before the conventions on the record.