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Friday, June 4, 2004

econ voodoo – look at the pretty charts

i don’t do stock market predictions… and i barely touch economics, but i do stumble across charts every once in a while, and even i can see that there’s a difference between the last few i ran into….

for the positive (that is, bullish) pictures, we turn to an old meta-roj friend, barry ritholtz, who posts on confirming a market turn – presumably a turn up, based on the picture he points to.

on the other hand (we’re doing that balance thing again), there’s the negative picture (that is, bearish)… and for this we came across this extensive and practically panicky analysis of the money supply and some esoteric technical mumbo-jumbo. this one, i think i found through metafilter.


anyway, there’s a pretty big difference between these views, so i’m just going to point at the pretty charts and let the experts shred the opposition (if they so desire).

and while i’m synthesizing things, i should toss in the little echo in the back of my head from a story about alan greenspan’s increasing coziness with the white house.

…the number of appointments with other White House officials jumped sharply with the new administration, from an average three per year from 1996 through 2000, to 44 per year in 2001 through 2003.

we don’t know the substance of the meetings, but perception is often more important than reality in the world of markets and speculation, and this data does suggest that the independence of the fed is, at the very least, under a great deal more scruntiny with bush than in previous administrations.

what does it all mean? is it safe to change the world this month?

posted by roj at 8:16 am