meta-roj

i guess the theme this week is going to be the economy, i found another gem.

White House Sees Record Budget Deficit [reuters, july 30, 2004]

The White House blames the 2001 recession and the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks for ushering in the deficits

yes, except that the 2001 recession doesn’t look like a recession so much. i wonder if anyone at the white house is reading the reports coming out of the commerce department? this administration used to be so good at keeping everyone on the same page…

The U.S. budget deficit will hit a record $445 billion this year, according to a White House report on Friday that is sure to fuel election-year wrangles about President Bush’s economic policies.

The figure is well above the 2003 shortfall of $374 billion, the prior record in dollar terms. But the midsession review forecast is $76 billion less than the $521 billion the White House projected in February.

so things (well, projections) are improving, and the rest of the article goes on to discuss the scope of the deficit in percentage-of-gdp terms. the peak in those terms was 1983 (that’s a reagan administration budget). some quick math tells me that’s about $1500 per living american to cover the gap for 2004. plus any extra emergency war money that comes up.

ok, with that, i hand it over to the experts…

a few days ago, i mentioned the two-year decline in american incomes. the “escape clause” was that the income decline occured during a recession. nevermind that other recessions since 1953 hadn’t produced income declines. today, that escape clause vanishes in the face of new economic data from the department of commerce.

US 2001 Slump May Not Have Been Recession at All [reuters, july 30, 2004]

Not only was the U.S. recession in 2001 the shallowest on record, it may not have been one at all — at least in the classic sense of two straight quarterly declines, new government data show.

so american incomes fell, despite a “flat” economy.

update (2004.07.31): somehow, i knew a “non-recession recession” would be irresistable over there. barry brings a different perspective (of course).

I.R.S. Says Americans’ Income Shrank for 2 Consecutive Years [ny times, july 29, 2004, registration]

The total adjusted gross income on tax returns fell 5.1 percent, to just over $6 trillion in 2002, the most recent year for which data is available, from $6.35 trillion in 2000. Because of population growth, average incomes declined even more, by 5.7 percent.

Adjusted for inflation, the income of all Americans fell 9.2 percent from 2000 to 2002, according to the new I.R.S. data.

but it was a recession! a double-dipper or something!

Before the recent drop, the last time reported incomes fell for even one year was in 1953.

update: no surprise, really (i should’ve looked)… barry has it too, with some depth.

a while ago, i dropped this here in the hopes that it would start something… it didn’t start much.

maybe this time…

The Fight of Our Lives, Bill Moyers [alternet]

The rich have the right to buy more homes than anyone else. They have the right to buy more cars than anyone else, more gizmos than anyone else, more clothes and vacations than anyone else. But they do not have the right to buy more democracy than anyone else.

[emphasis is not mine – that’s in the original]

update (2004.06.18 23:11): this same quote appears on metafilter. hmm. maybe something will happen this time. following the lead from the comments there, i thought it worth adding this too….

The Fight of Our Lives, Bill Moyers [alternet]

Our political, financial and business class expects them to climb out of poverty on an escalator moving downward.

i don’t do stock market predictions… and i barely touch economics, but i do stumble across charts every once in a while, and even i can see that there’s a difference between the last few i ran into….

for the positive (that is, bullish) pictures, we turn to an old meta-roj friend, barry ritholtz, who posts on confirming a market turn – presumably a turn up, based on the picture he points to.

on the other hand (we’re doing that balance thing again), there’s the negative picture (that is, bearish)… and for this we came across this extensive and practically panicky analysis of the money supply and some esoteric technical mumbo-jumbo. this one, i think i found through metafilter.

anyway, there’s a pretty big difference between these views, so i’m just going to point at the pretty charts and let the experts shred the opposition (if they so desire).

and while i’m synthesizing things, i should toss in the little echo in the back of my head from a story about alan greenspan’s increasing coziness with the white house.

Greenspan frequent visitor to White House these days

…the number of appointments with other White House officials jumped sharply with the new administration, from an average three per year from 1996 through 2000, to 44 per year in 2001 through 2003.

we don’t know the substance of the meetings, but perception is often more important than reality in the world of markets and speculation, and this data does suggest that the independence of the fed is, at the very least, under a great deal more scruntiny with bush than in previous administrations.

what does it all mean? is it safe to change the world this month?

it might be time to take a trip down memory lane.

there’s just too much room for conspiracy theorists on this one…

cruising for some rich friends?

#1 teton county, wyoming (average adjusted household gross income $107, 694 in 2002)
#2 fairfield county, connecticut
#3 marin county, california
#4 sommerset county, new jersey
#5 morris county, new jersey
#6 clear creek county, colorado
#7 douglas county, colorado
#8 hunterdon county, new jersey
#9 westchester county, new york
#10 new york, new york

update: since people either aren’t reading this in the comment, or just enjoy comparing the size of their income, this list is based on “average adjusted household gross income” as reported by the irs. you can find a newswire version of the story here. for now, fairfax is just going to have to learn to deal with their inadequacy issues.

update (2004.05.08): maybe these will help

this really warrants some homework and discussion, but for now, since the conference is over, i’m just going to drop it in here and see if anything starts.

according to one walter williams (i couldn’t find a nice bio to link in here in a few minutes of searching), “massive maldistribution” of wealth has severely weakened U.S. political institutions and democracy.

i dropped a hint related to this earlier, but i haven’t really had a chance to apply myself.

since i hacked up joi’s emergent democracy paper not too long ago, this is an interesting subject to play in.